Will payroll clear on Friday?

Every owner I know has done this math on a napkin. Payroll is Friday. There is $31,000 in the bank. The lumber bill is due the same day. Two customers owe you, and one of them is always late. Does it clear?

Usually it does. But you did not know that until Friday afternoon, and you carried it around all week.

The napkin has two problems. It stops at Friday, when the real trouble is two weeks out. And it uses the due date on the invoice, when what matters is the day that customer actually pays. Some pay on time. Some pay three weeks late, every time, like clockwork. Your books know which. The napkin does not.

I built a skill that does the napkin math the right way, out to 90 days, and names the days you need to watch.

What it does

It reads four things from your books, or from Square or Stripe, or from three small files you fill in if you have none of those:

• What is in the bank today. That is the only place it starts from. Not "cash plus what's owed." The number in the account.
• What customers owe you, and when each one actually tends to pay. If Lakeline usually pays 20 days late, their invoice lands 20 days late in the forecast. Not on the due date.
• What you owe, on the due dates.
• What always goes out. Payroll, rent, the truck loan, insurance, your own draw.

Then it lays out the next 90 days, week by week, with a low line and a high line, because your weeks are not all the same. And it tells you the days that matter.

Like this. This is from a test on a made-up fence company, seven days before payroll:

Payroll Fri Sep 25: yes. $12,000 goes out; you'll have $15,300 after it, and that doesn't depend on anyone paying you first.

Lowest day: Sat Oct 10, −$3,795. Two days under zero, then it climbs.

1. Fri Oct 10: cash goes to −$3,795 for two days. Cedar Post Supply ($4,600) is due the 10th; Riverbend HOA ($18,400) usually pays 12 days late, so I have it landing the 12th. Ask Cedar Post for the 15th, or ask Riverbend to pay by the 9th. Either one fixes it.
2. Payroll Fri Oct 9 only clears if Lakeline Builders pays their $9,750. They're 8 days late now and usually pay 20 days late. Without them you're at −$8,945 on the 9th. Call Lakeline this week.

That is what I want from a forecast. Not "October could be tight." The day. The number. The one phone call that fixes it.

The part most owners have never seen

It also tells you this: new work you invoice today does not turn into cash for about 35 days, if your customers pay the way they have been. Until then, you are living on what is already owed to you.

Most owners feel this and have never seen it written down. Once you see it, a lot of things make sense. Why a great month of sales can still be a bad month for cash. Why the fix for a tight October is a phone call in September.

What it will not do

It only counts money that is really owed to you. If you are hoping a big job lands, it is not in there until you tell it the job is signed. Hopes are not cash.

It does not move money, pay a bill, or send an invoice. It can draft the "hey, your invoice is 20 days late" note if you ask. You send it.

It is not an accountant or a lender, and it says so. It is a best read of your own numbers. When the low line goes under zero, it says so, first, before the good news.

What you get

A short answer in the chat that fits on a phone. And a spreadsheet, week by week, with every invoice and every bill and a sheet that shows its work, so when you ask "how did you get that number," the answer is there.

Ask it "what if Lakeline never pays" and it changes just that and shows you the difference. Ask "what if I skip my draw this month" and it tells you exactly what that buys you.

How to try it

1. Download the skill at the top of this page. Add it to Claude or ChatGPT. The steps are in the box, and inside the zip.
2. Say "will I make payroll" or "how's cash." It asks two short rounds of questions the first time, then saves them.
3. If your books are connected, it reads them. If not, it gives you three small files to fill in. Ten minutes.
4. Read the flags. Make the one phone call.

When the payroll it flagged comes around, the Payroll Prepare skill checks every line of the run before you approve it. Do this one first.

If it saves you one week of carrying the napkin around, it was worth it. My email is on the contact page.